A fifth of the revenue renews before day 90

The riskiest weeks in an agency acquisition are the ones either side of the close. Clients hear about the new owner, producers are distracted, the systems are mid-migration — and every policy renewing in those weeks is a client deciding whether to stay. How much revenue renews then is knowable from the book on the first day of analysis.

This post looks at the renewal calendar on the illustrative Ironwood Risk Partners — 21.2% of revenue renews in the next 90 days — and at the upside the same book points to: commercial clients buying one line, and the acquirer's lines they do not buy.

Use case card

Actors	Deal lead, integration lead, account managers after close
Trigger	Analyze; the renewal engine runs on every import
Agency Illustrative	Ironwood Risk Partners — 268 policies renewing within 90 days of the export date
Agents involved	Revenue quality analyst (renewals), cross-sell analyst, integration planner
Controls	`RENEWALS_90D` (more than 35% of revenue renewing in 90 days — warn); not fired here
Decisions and authority	Approving the findings; adopting the plan's day-1 renewal task
Outcome	Renewals in the first 90 days after close each get a named owner; the cross-sell estimate is a finding, not a forecast
What is measured	Revenue renewing in 30/60/90/180 days; single-line commercial clients; the engine's cross-sell estimate

The Book zone: retention, revenue by period, mix and renewals, on illustrative data — The Book zone: retention period over period, revenue and new business by rolling twelve-month period, revenue by line and the renewal calendar.

The calendar

Window from the export date	Revenue renewing	Share
30 days	$152K	4.8%
60 days	$380K	12.0%
90 days	$669K	21.2%
180 days	$1.3M	42.6%

Illustrative figures. Cumulative: each window includes the ones before it.

gantt title Renewals around an illustrative close dateFormat YYYY-MM-DD axisFormat %b section Deal Analysis and IC memo :a1, 2026-10-29, 45d Signing to close :a2, after a1, 30d section Renewals 30-day window (4.8%) :crit, r1, 2026-10-29, 30d 60-day window (12.0%) :r2, 2026-10-29, 60d 90-day window (21.2%) :r3, 2026-10-29, 90d section Integration Day 1 protect renewals :milestone, m1, 2027-01-12, 0d

The RENEWALS_90D control warns above 35%. Ironwood is under it, so it does not fire; the finding still exists, at info severity, and the integration planner still makes protecting those renewals a day-1 task with a named owner per account.

The upside, as the engine computes it

Cross-sell: the acquirer's lines the target's commercial clients don't buy, illustrative — Cross-sell: clients without each line, the book's median revenue per client on it, and the engine's estimate — an engine figure, not a forecast.

122 of 470 commercial clients (26.0%) buy one line. For each of the acquirer's lines, the engine counts the clients without it and applies a deliberately plain estimate: 10% take-up × the book's own median revenue per client on that line. Professional liability leads at $98.4K, management liability $73.9K, cyber $70.3K. The screen says it in words: an engine figure, not a forecast.

flowchart LR B["Commercial clients
in force"] --> O{"Buy one line?"} O -->|"yes, 26.0%"| G["Gaps against the
acquirer's lines"] G --> E["Estimate = 10% take-up ×
book median revenue per client"] E --> F["Cross-sell finding
(info)"] F --> T["Day-100 task:
cross-sell review"]

Renewals and the upside Ironwood Risk Partners, illustrative.

Renewal calendarrevenue_quality_agentAnalyze

$669.42K of revenue (21.2%) renews in the next 90 days; 268 policies; cited.

Cross-sellcross_sell_agentAnalyze

26.0% of commercial clients buy one line; largest gaps professional liability, management liability, cyber.

Findings approvedDeal leadReview

Approved for the memo's renewals and upside sections.

Day-1 taskintegration_planner_agentClose

Protect the renewals in the first 90 days: named owner per account, flagged high risk.

Day-100 taskintegration_planner_agentClose

Cross-sell review for the largest gap.

Agent	What it prepared	What it cites	Who decides
Revenue quality analyst	$669.42K of revenue (21.2%) renews in the next 90 days	268 active rows expiring within 90 days of the export date	Deal lead
Cross-sell analyst	26.0% of commercial clients buy one line; the engine's estimate per line	969 book rows of commercial clients in force	Deal lead
Integration planner	Day-1 renewal protection; day-100 cross-sell review	The findings	Integration lead

For the deal team

The first-90-days renewal list exists before close, with an owner per account the day after.

For IT

Windows are computed from expiry dates relative to the export date, so the calendar is correct on the day the book was read.

For corp-dev leadership

The upside is shown with its arithmetic in plain sight, so nobody prices a forecast the engine never made.

Questions we get asked

Why 10% take-up?

It is a deliberately simple, visible assumption so the estimate cannot be mistaken for a forecast. The figure that matters is the count of clients without each line.